Last week I discussed the next week futures and the possibility of additional betting opportunities. This week I want to talk about Championship and Super Bowl futures for this season. ‘Puter has the capability, after a few games to predict the entire season. The accuracy is really that good. “puter can’t predict injuries, or suspensions for that matter, but it might provide the basis for a futures bet on either the Conference championships or the Super Bowl.

Let’s look at ‘puter’s prediction and the corresponding odds for championship and Super Bowl.

Okay let’s look at the chart above.

• If no odds are listed ‘puter doesn’t like the team’s chances
• If there is no color the team’s chances and the odds are prohibitive
• If the team is Red they are the favorite, and I wouldn’t even consider them. My experience with horse racing has taught me, “NEVER BET THE CHALK.”
• The yellow teams are marginal and I’ll discuss them later.
• The green teams are the ones that should be considered possible a possible bet.

When making a futures’ bet the risk is very high. A result is that we need to get excellent odds to get an overlay. So let’s look at what ‘puter thinks is the most promising bet, Chicago at 35:1 for the Conference Championship and 75:1 for the Super Bowl. Most of the NFC is rather weak and Chicago’s division is particularly weak. If Chicago wins the NFC North, their play offs would look something like this, based on a $10 bet at 35:1 and 75:1

Round 1

Most probable opponents:

-1 vs. Dallas
-1 vs. Philly
-1 vs. Atlanta
-3 vs. Carolina

‘Puter picks Chicago as a favorite against the most probable opponents. Although I often forego insurance, betting against Chicago to cover the bet, during Round 1, for the purposes of discussion, I’ll work out the insurance bet. If Chicago is indeed the favorite at game time I will simply make a bet on their opponent, taking the points. So to cover my original $10, I must bet $11 against Chicago in the first round. If Chicago wins, I lose the $11 bet and have $21 invested. If Chicago loses I break even. If Chicago is the dog, I must lay the odds and bet the moneyline against Chicago. This will increase my investment slightly.

Round 2

After the Insurance bet on Round 1, my odds are now 17:1 and 32:1 respectively.

-.5 vs. NYG
+1 vs. TB
+1 vs. SEA

It appears that Chicago will be the dog, so I will have to lay the odds and bet the money line. I’m going to assume that the posted spread at game time is a little worse than ‘puter’s spread, but as a +5 point dog the moneyline will be approximately 2:1 So to cover my investment of $21, I must wager $42. If Chicago loses I will again break even but if Chicago wins I now have Chicago to win the Championship at about 5:1 and to win the Super Bowl at 11:1

NFC Championship

Well I expect that the opponent will be T'Bay or Seattle. In both cases Chicago can expect to be the dog, and the money line will probably be about 2:1 against so I will win only half of my total game day bet, on their opponent. Here are a couple of betting combinations.

5:1 to win the Championship:

$63 invested to win $350

If I think Chicago has a chance:
To cover my bet requires a moneyline bet of $126
If Chicago wins I invest $189 to win $350 for a gain of $61
If Chicago loses I break even.

If I think Chicago doesn’t have a prayer:
My futures bet will cover a game day bet of $287. So I bet their opponent on the money line for $287.
If Chicago loses, I win $287+$143=$430 a gain of $80

If you skip the insurance bet on the 1st round, this gain would be $260 or $40. Of course any time that Chicago is the favorite. You can take the points and have a chance to win both bets.

Of course to win the Super Bowl you have to play one more game.

$189 to win $750

Again Chicago will be an underdog, and the moneyline can be expected to be about +200 so you would have to double the bet on their opponent or $378 so you would have $567 to win $750, or if you reverse the bet, $750 to win $781. Again if you skip the insurance on the first round it increases your this to $189 to win $750 = gain of $561 or reversing it I bet $750 to win $1030 for a gain of $280.

Have you gotten the best of it.

If you believe Chicago will win you get 6:1 on the Championship and 56:1 on the Super Bowl.

But:

If you think the will lose you get 8:1 on TB or Seattle in the championship and of course 28:1 on Indianapolis to win the Super Bowl.

Is their a risk? Of course, injuries, G’Bay or Minnesota may wake up, but it looks like you might get the best of it.

After working through these numbers, I only a couple if any of the remaining teams are worth a futures bet. Miami stands to be the dog in every play off match up and that continued betting of the moneyline will cut to much of the edge. You might take them to win the division if the odds are about 5:1. T'Bay and Cincinnati might also be worth further consideration because they can be expected to be the favorite in most match ups so their will be several opportunities to take the points and win both bets during the early rounds of the play offs. At 7:1 for the Championship and 20:1 for the super bowl, lets look at T’Bay, $10 to win both:

‘Puter picks T’Bay with the best record and should have a by in the first Round.

Round 1

Bye

Round 2

7:1 ($10 to win $70)

T’Bay should be the favorite against any opponent except maybe Seattle. Therefore all insurance bets can be 1 for 1 against the spread and with possibility of winning both bets.
Let’s assume that T’Bay will be -3 vs. a wild card team. For insurance My bet would be to buy the hook at +1.15 and bet $12 dollars on the opponent at +3.5.

If T’Bay loses I will actually win a few cents.
If T’Bay wins I have $22 invested.
If T’Bay wins by less than 4 points I will win the insurance bet and still have a live bet.

Championship

3:1 ($22 to win $70)

Actually I’m a firm believer that D beats O so I expect that T’Bay will still bet the favorite here, although ‘puter has it at pike ‘em. Now I must bet $24 to cover the invested. The result is $46 invested to win $70 or $24. So I get T’Bay a payoff of about 2.5 on my money with little or no risk. Plus the possibility of winning the insurance bets also if T’Bay wins but does not cover.

For the Super Bowl of course we need to add one more game, and our investment will have increased to a total of $46 + $92 = $138 to win $200 or a gain of $72. If we think they are an underdog in the Super Bowl we can always bet $200 to win $231 or a gain of $31. Again we get those insurance bets in the games when T’Bay wins but fails to cover.

Are these future bets worth the risk? That is really up to you. They do give you an opportunity to “get the best of it,” and think of the bragging rights when you can show a winning ticket at 75 or 20 to 1 bet in week 7 of the season. (You don’t have to show them the losing insurance bets.) You might not agree with ‘puter’s picks but you should apply this methodology to your own handicapping techniques and see if you might have an extra betting opportunity.

Good luck on all your wagers, unless you bet against me.

Sarge