We see them online all the time; “the funniest thing ever,” “the worst bad beat ever”, or “the worst hand in the world.” When most people get older the usually realize they aren’t, but I want to talk about sports. As touts try to rate their success. Here is and excerpt from a spam I got during the season”

“Hi guys, Matt Rivers here, and it's put up or shut up time again as I am about to deliver yet another highest rated 500,000* Lock Of My Life release - and only my 5th of the college football season.

I'm 3-1 with these plays this year with the last winner being Virginia's huge ACC upset of Florida State when I told you the Cavs would win outright and they did.

I am 7-2-1 with these highest-rated 500,000* lifetime plays on the season, college and pro combined. Yes, 7-2-1 and just a few hours away from 8-2-1 because I've got your Texas-USC Rose Bowl winner, and it's going to be the easiest one of them all.”
I’m really curious. Is a 500,000 * pick better than a 100,000 * pick. (I’m looking for a 500,000 * restaurant.) So, in this scale what is a 10 * pick worth. Would you put your money on a 5 * pick or even a 500 *. I guess inflation exists in everything. He describes his 500,000 * pick as the Lock of his life, but he has had 4 this season, and a total of 10 during his life.

Maybe we need to come up with a standard scale?

A pick by any competent tout should win more than 50% of the time.

1 * -well 60% of the time may be a bit high so let’s make it 55% of the time

2 * -looks about right for 60% other wise we won’t even get to 5 stars.

3 * -70% or 75% should fit. This is where Matt’s pick would fit at 78% (I don’t think I would call this a Lock of My life release).

4 * -80% is definitely the right number here.

5 * -some players might like 90% but truth be known I like 95%, this is really as close as you can get to a mortal lock. This would probably rate as rubber band bet or a bridge jumper.

6 * -okay I really don’t like the expanded scale but I will allow 6 *s if the tout is willing to commit seppuku if the game doesn’t come in. I’ll give him the knife.

When I develop picks I can actually to put a percentage on it. So, maybe 100 *s is a good scale. A 50 * pick indicates it is a 50/50 proposition. 67* indicates a 67% chance of coming through. Wouldn’t a scale like this be better? When we get that 85 * star pick we know exactly where we stand.

I think next year I’ll go with the hundred stars then the player can see exactly where I think the game stands.

How many of you guys think Matt had USC in the Rose Bowl?

Sarge