I have watched football very closely for the past 25 years maintaining detailed stats on all of the games and even betting on one or two. One of the things I have noticed is that every year, there is one, or sometimes two games where it appears that the fix is in. I don’t believe the game is fixed. The teams and the officials give us a fair game. These games seem to be fixed by the gambling industry wise guys. All the sports Services, Media, etc., seem to back a particular team. All of the public money goes in on the “media” darling while the smart money goes in on the true favorite. The result is a great pay day for the people in the know.

Because I tend to bet underdogs, I usually avoid these games; additionally my computer ignores the hype. Interestingly enough every time I have adamantly disagreed with ‘puter, ‘puter has always been right. Back on topic; there are a couple of red flags that should alert you to the big game.

First, the opening line will seem very wrong. It is selected to entice bets on the false favorite. The line will make shifts away from the false favorite as the “Smart Money” takes advantage of the odds. The game normally occurs early in the season.

Secondly, the false favorite will have lost only one game. The other team will have won no more than two. So you will be looking at something like 3-1 vs. 1-3.

If you see a line that looks to good to be rue. It probably is. The one advantage the bettor has over the sports book is the option to pass the game. Sometimes you should just sit back and enjoy the game.

This is Week 6. I would look at these games real hard.

GL

Sarge

Editors Note: Sarge has written articles for me for over two years now, and has his own poker information site at www.bestpokerguide.net